Saturday, 25 May 2019

Countdown to Retirement: A Five-Year Plan – Honolulu Star-Advertiser


For most of your working life, it wasn’t exactly a pressing concern. You might have pondered it for a few minutes as you skimmed your company’s benefits handout, checking to see if your new glasses were covered or if you’ll be reimbursed for your gym membership. Retirement was more like a vague, distant concept rather than something that would actually happen one day.

Then, suddenly, you hit your late 50s or early 60s and you realize, almost without being aware of it, that you’ve begun paying closer attention to those commercials about annuities, reverse mortgages and Medicare Part B, and you’re no longer reflexively tossing those AARP mailings straight into the trash.

Now, retirement looms with terrifying urgency. Do you have enough savings? Is your money invested too aggressively — or not aggressively enough? Do you need long-term-care insurance? Do you have a will? What even is a reverse mortgage?

This abrupt awakening/panic attack often hits five years or so before retirement — and that can be a good thing, financial advisers agree. Because those years can be critical. You can make moves now that will substantially improve your life in retirement.

“We call the five years right before and right after retirement ‘the fragile decade,’ because your investment returns then are disproportionately important,” says Alex Murguia, managing principal of McLean Asset Management, a Virginia investment firm.

That doesn’t mean you have to make every retirement decision right this second. Many of these choices can wait, at least for a while. Spread the work out over a few years “and do it at a comfortable pace,” suggests René Bruer, a fee-only financial planner in Tallahassee, Florida.

“If you give yourself just six months,” he says, “there’s going to be some long nights and weekends and hair-pulling to get it all done.”

So what are the key things to concentrate on each year? Here, based on interviews with financial advisers, economists and retirees, is our suggested “five-year countdown to retirement.”

Five Years to Go

Your first step is, admittedly, a daunting one. But the rest of your retirement planning depends on it. Before anything else, you need to see where you stand financially. How much have you saved, and will that money, plus Social Security and any other pension income, generate enough cash to cover your expenses in retirement?

You may already have a bad feeling about what these numbers will tell you. Don’t sweat it, advisers suggest. This is the moment to confront the truth, knowing that there’s still time to change your investments to generate bigger returns, cut back your current spending to find more money for savings or (worst case) rethink your retirement expectations.

A qualified investment adviser who specializes in retirement planning can help you sort all this out. But do-it-yourselfers have some options, too. Laurence Kotlikoff, a Boston University economics professor, has created an online service called MaxiFi Planner, which compares your assets against your fixed expenses to calculate how much you can safely spend annually for the rest of your life. The program, which costs $99 for the first year and $79 for renewals, takes about 45 minutes to complete.

Let’s say you are a single 60-year-old earning $140,000 a year. You have $1.5 million in your 401(k) and will contribute 6 percent of your salary to it, or $8,400, a year, along with a 3 percent match from your employer until your planned retirement at 65. You will get roughly $500 a month from the pension plan that your company phased out several years ago but that you are still eligible to collect from, and can receive $3,150 a month from Social Security if you wait until you are 67 before you start taking it. (MaxiFi will help you calculate your Social Security income.) Also, you own a $500,000 home in New York state that costs you $25,000 a year in property tax, insurance and maintenance, and you plan to stay there.

The MaxiFi program estimates that your fixed annual spending on housing, taxes and insurance should range from $52,000 to $61,000 from ages 65 to 100, and that you’ll have enough left over for “discretionary spending” — money you can freely spend on food, travel, clothes and entertainment — of around $64,000 a year.

Unsatisfied with that amount? It’s easy to run an almost endless series of what-if scenarios to see how they would affect your retirement income and spending. For example: If at 65 you downsized into a $250,000 home that cost you $12,500 a year, it would make a huge difference over time. The money available for your annual discretionary spending would climb by $23,000, to $87,000, according to MaxiFi Planner.

This is a good time to take a look at your overall asset allocation — that is, how you’ve spread your savings among stocks, bonds and cash. Most investment company and brokerage websites have sections where you can review your allocation, including investments held at other firms (though you may have to enter this data yourself). Unless you’re depending on big investment gains over the next five years to make retirement doable, a balanced allocation of 50 percent stocks and 50 percent bonds is reasonable for someone expecting to live another 30 years or more.

Four Years to Go

It’s easy to get caught up in what happens right after you quit working, but take some time now to consider the later years in your retirement.

Think you might live in a retirement community one day? Though most people don’t move into them until their 70s, it’s smart to begin researching communities now. You’ll find there’s a wide variety of amenities and price ranges, and the most popular ones have waiting lists that you can join with a refundable deposit.

Kathryn Olive of Durham, N.C., and her husband, Bruce, both 63, are drawn to continuing-care retirement communities, or CCRCs. These communities allow you to start out living in a town house or apartment and then move into assisted-living or hospice care as you need it. The Olives have already gotten on one waiting list (it’s currently 10 years long for the larger cottage-style home they have in mind) and may join two or three more.

“One thing people tell us is ‘Don’t come too early — wait until you’re 73 or 75 — but also don’t come too late, because you won’t make the friendships and enjoy all the benefits of living here,’” Kathryn Olive says. “I want to be sure there’s a place for us when we’re ready.”

When thinking about these later years, many are rightly concerned about long-term care. This is when a senior needs full-time help to do even the most basic activities, such as dressing, bathing and eating. The national median cost for long-term care last year ranged from $48,000 to $97,000, according to the Genworth 2017 Cost of Care Survey. Many people, even in CCRCs, are drawn to insurance that will cover the expense. Though some CCRCs will let you transition into long-term care without an increase in your monthly fee, others charge more as your needs increase.

Before you make room in your budget for a long-term-care policy, it’s worth considering whether you truly need it. Working with a financial planner or crunching the numbers yourself, you may find you have enough assets to pay for those expenses without insurance. Rick Waechter, a fee-only financial planner in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, figures long-term-care insurance makes sense for about a third to a half of his clients ages 55 and up.

“It’s popular for people with net worths of $500,000 to $2 million,” he says. “That would be the sweet spot. Once you get meaningfully above $2 million, you probably don’t need it.”

Know, too, that the insurance itself is pricey. To cover $500,000 of expenses over five years, the insurer Genworth would charge a 60-year-old couple living in New York $3,800 a year per person, and insurers reserve the right to bump up your premiums in the future.

Waechter suggests looking at policies that would cover only part of your expenses. A policy paying for $100,000 in long-term care over three years, for example, would cost around $1,100 per person annually for the same couple. The fact is, there’s a limited chance you’ll ever need long-term care, and if you do, “there’s a less than 10 percent chance you’ll need it for more than three years,” Waechter says.

One other important item to handle while you’re thinkin